Sunday, February 18, 2007

China Overtakes the US

China is currently delivering a serious barrage of attacks on the USA, coming from every given direction. They are whooping them in policy areas typically 'owned' by the USA.

Foreign Policy
1. USA Middle East debacle.
2. China got North Korea to dearm and open up.

Environment
1. China announced a nation-wide plan for a carbon trading exchange and carbon trading legislation
2. The USA has already put in place a carbon trading exchange (Chicago)... but any carbon trading legislation has been put in place at the state level.

Trading
1. Recent tri-lateral China-Pakistan-India deals, investment deals with Africa, continuing to dominate the trade deficit with the USA.
2. The USA is becoming less and less popular as a source of foreign direct investment. The USA has to realize its not just about money, its also about image. Foreign policy is a critical marketing tool if you want to be able to invest.

I recently read a very interesting economic comparison of China vs USA here. China's economy is still largely state driven, and there are a number of unprofitable state-run businesses allowed to operate because of the Chinese business culture of quanxi(i.e. connections). In order to componsate the economy has become reliant on massive exportation and re-distribution of capital via quanxi channels.

Alternatively, the USA economy is based on constant financial speculation in the markets and is therefore typicall overvalued - which means they should have rampant inflation. In order to keep the inflation in check they require cheap imports.

Currently the USA and China are an economic match made in heaven. Having said that, it seems that solving China's problems are easier then solving the USA. China's issue can be resolved with more open markets and deregulation, the USA's issue can only be solve by removing social/cultural get-rich-quick tendencies.

I am looking forward to the continued growth of China, competition provides impetus for new ideas and stimulates growth and efficiency.

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